Don’t Buy an iPad Air Right Now. Seriously.
I woke up this morning, grabbed my coffee, and did what I usually do when I’m procrastinating on real work: I checked the Apple Store app. I’ve been meaning to pick up a blue iPad Air for my sister’s birthday next month.
Gone.
Well, not gone gone, but “Unavailable for Pickup” at the three stores closest to me in downtown Chicago. Delivery estimates? Slipping into mid-March. And if you follow Apple’s supply chain rhythms as obsessively as I do, you know exactly what this means. The inventory purge has begun.
It’s February 20, 2026. We are smack in the middle of the “danger zone” for buying Apple hardware. Actually, let me back up — if you buy an iPad Air today, you are essentially lighting money on fire.
The “Out of Stock” Signal
This isn’t a supply chain hiccup. I remember back in early 2024, right before the M2 Air dropped, we saw the exact same pattern. Stock levels for specific colors (usually the popular ones like Blue and Purple) dip first, then the higher storage tiers vanish.
I called a buddy of mine who works inventory at a big box retailer—let’s just say they wear blue shirts—and he confirmed it. “We haven’t received a new shipment of 256GB Airs in two weeks,” he told me. “The system just says ‘backordered’ with no ETA.”
That is the smoking gun.
Apple operates on Just-In-Time manufacturing principles that would make a Toyota engineer blush. They don’t let old stock sit around when a refresh is imminent. They drain the channel. And the fact that we are seeing this across the board — and hearing whispers about the elusive “iPhone 16e” facing similar constraints — points to a massive Spring event, likely mid-March.
What Are We Actually Waiting For?
So, if the M2 Air is dead, what’s replacing it? The rumor mill is messy right now, but looking at the current lineup, the answer seems obvious: The M4 chip.
I’ve been testing the M4 iPad Pro since it launched, and frankly, it’s overkill for 90% of users. It’s a Ferrari engine in a golf cart. But Apple needs to unify the NPU architecture for Apple Intelligence features in iOS 19. The M2 is fine, but the M4’s neural engine is where the future-proofing lives.
Here is my bet for the specs of the incoming Air, based on what I’m seeing in the supply chain data:
- Chip: M4 (probably a binned version with fewer GPU cores than the Pro)
- Screen: Still LCD. I know, I know. We all want OLED on the Air. But if they give us OLED now, who buys the Pro? They have to keep the segmentation clear.
- Base Storage: 128GB. If they stick with 64GB in 2026, I will personally fly to Cupertino and protest.
- Camera: Landscape front camera. Finally.
The “iPhone 16e” Curveball
The weirdest part of this shortage news is the iPhone 16e. Usually, iPhones and iPads run on different release tracks. But seeing shortages for both simultaneously suggests Apple is planning a “Value Tier” refresh.
Think about it. A new budget-friendly iPhone and a refreshed mid-tier iPad Air? That is a perfect “Back to School” prep lineup, released just in time for the education buying season to ramp up in Q2.
And I’m running iOS 19.3 beta 2 on my daily driver, and there are strings of code referencing device identifiers that don’t match anything currently on sale. Specifically, “iPad16,3″—which doesn’t align with the current Pro or Mini models.
My Advice? Wait Three Weeks.
I almost pulled the trigger on a refurbished unit yesterday because I panicked about the shipping dates. But I stopped myself. Probably a good call.
Buying tech in late February is a fool’s game. Best case scenario? You get a device that is instantly outdated. Worst case? You pay full price for two-year-old tech right before a price drop.
If you absolutely need an iPad today — like, your current one is shattered and you use it for work — check the Refurbished store. Those prices have already adjusted slightly, and you can sometimes snag a deal. But for a brand new unit? Hold the line.
The shortage is the signal. The refresh is the noise. Don’t get caught in the middle.
I’ll be watching the store inventory like a hawk over the next few days. But if the iPad Mini starts showing “Unavailable” next, we’re in for a very interesting March.
